What we know
What we know: After Trump's midterm rout, Europe sees cracks in populist right. It may not stop France’s Le Pen
Compiled Nov 7
What we know
- Since April, voters have ousted Hungary's Viktor Orbán, ended Aleksandar Vučić's grip on Serbia, and blocked the Bolsonaro family's return in Brazil.
- Marine Le Pen is the front-runner in France's presidential election six months away.
- Nationalist or anti-immigration parties have suffered at least eight national election setbacks in roughly 18 months, including Romania, Netherlands, Portugal, Hungary, Sweden, Serbia, Brazil and the US.
- Portugal's moderate Socialist António José Seguro beat hard-right populist André Ventura by two to one.
- Geert Wilders' party lost 11 seats in the Netherlands; Sweden's Sweden Democrats also lost 11 seats.
- France's Senate approved a bill that could fine people up to 10,000 euros for joining violent groups and let the state dock family benefits to cover damages.
What we don’t know yet
- Whether France's highest court will rule against Le Pen's embezzlement conviction appeal, which could bar her from running or force her to campaign with an electronic tag.
- Who will emerge as Le Pen's main challenger, with Mélenchon, Philippe and Glucksmann all contending.
- Whether France will experience its own 'Trump moment' as one analyst suggested is possible.
Open questions
- Will France's highest court bar Le Pen from running in the presidential election?
- Will the populist right's recent defeats elsewhere actually affect Le Pen's campaign in France?
- Who among Mélenchon, Philippe, and Glucksmann will become Le Pen's main challenger?
- Will French voters again rally to block Le Pen as they did in 2017 and 2022?
Drawn from the Associated Press report. “What we don’t know” lists only what the reporting itself flags as unresolved.